It is very unlikely that a single political party will manage the
first round of voting in Maldives this time on. Success in the 2013 Elections
will depend on the party that manages to come out with maximum tie-ups and alliances.
It's a reference to tie-ups that are productive and generate votes, not those
that are unyielding and burdensome where the probability of undesirable result
tend to be high.
MDP is quite correctly described as the (Most Distrusted Party)
in the Maldives in the article “What is the Political future of our country?”
and by the way I like that acronym. Two players that would matter in the forthcoming
elections are DRP and PPM. Limping behind these two parties, slandering and
defaming their way down the 2013 election lane would be MDP solo without any
allies.
For a better understanding of our rationale, we need to look at the
grouping that made up the second round of voting in 2008
Do you see the difference that the Mighty Coalition against DRP managed to secure? it's only 8.33%. DRP then led by President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was a popular party indeed.
DRP
|
71731
|
40.34%
|
MDP and Gaumee Ethihad
|
|
|
Gaumee Party (Hassan Saeed)
|
29633
|
16.67%
|
Republican Party
|
27056
|
15.22%
|
Islamic Democratic Party (Umar Nasser)
|
2472
|
1.39%
|
Social Liberal (Ibrahim Ismail)
|
1382
|
0.77%
|
The analysis of the first round results tells us an interesting story. From the figures above, it is very evident that although DRP was
singled out to be thrown out of office on the second round of voting. The percentage of votes secured by the coalition
working together in the second round was only 5.31% more than the sum total of the votes the managed to secure working separately in the first round of voting. And on the second
round, the MDP coalition of all the political parties managed only
8.33% more than what DRP single handedly secured on the second round. This is a
point to note, in support of our argument regarding 2013.
Looking at
the facts and figures in retrospect, we can establish the true gauge of MDP
today and predict the 2013 election. First, we acknowledge and value the
contribution of alliance members such as Dr. Hassan Saeed, Mr. Gasim Ibrahim
during the second round of voting.
Together they commanded 31.89% of the votes in the first round. So take away the contribution of these two
alliance members, MDP was left with a true value of 21.76% a near approximation
of its round one run value of 24.91% of which 3.15% could be attributed to as Gaumee Itthihaad
(GIP) Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan Maniku contribution.
People still feel and fear the sense of insecurity that governed
us over the years and to a great extent true even today. The Nasheed Administration changed fear
factor methods from corporal punishment and imprisonment to economic seclusion
and social onslaught. It wouldn’t be
wrong therefore to say that the vast majority of our population suffers from Stockholm syndrome .
MDP boasts of an increased membership since they came to power. These signatures were given in return for
material benefit and social security guarantees; it is not a guarantee of a
vote. MDP insiders believe that it has
only 19000 voters that are willing to vote to keep the party in power. The rest of the signatures are only on paper.
The realization that MDP has taken us several years back in time fifteen years,
if not ten, is something for which many people will avenge MDP in 2013.
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