HeyWalla 2013

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Monday, October 10, 2011

Almost 2013 Election

It is very unlikely that a single political party will manage the first round of voting in Maldives this time on. Success in the 2013 Elections will depend on the party that manages to come out with maximum tie-ups and alliances. It's a reference to tie-ups that are productive and generate votes, not those that are unyielding and burdensome where the probability of undesirable result tend to be high.

MDP is quite correctly described as the (Most Distrusted Party) in the Maldives in the article “What is the Political future of our country?” and by the way I like that acronym. Two players that would matter in the forthcoming elections are DRP and PPM. Limping behind these two parties, slandering and defaming their way down the 2013 election lane would be MDP solo without any allies.
For a better understanding of our rationale, we need to look at the grouping that made up the second round of voting in 2008

The MDP coalition on the Second Round Voting in 2008

The DRP coalition on the Second Round Voting in 2008

Do you see the difference that the Mighty Coalition against DRP managed to secure? it's only 8.33%. DRP then led by President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom was a popular party indeed.

First Round Voting Results 2008
MDP and Gaumee Ethihad
Gaumee Party (Hassan Saeed)
Republican Party
Islamic Democratic Party (Umar Nasser)
Social Liberal (Ibrahim Ismail)

The analysis of the first round results tells us an interesting story. From the figures above, it is very evident that although DRP was singled out to be thrown out of office on the second round of voting. The percentage of votes secured by the coalition working together in the second round was only 5.31% more than the sum total of the votes the managed to secure working separately in the first round of voting.   And on the second round, the MDP coalition of all the political parties managed only 8.33% more than what DRP single handedly secured on the second round. This is a point to note, in support of our argument regarding 2013.
Looking at the facts and figures in retrospect, we can establish the true gauge of MDP today and predict the 2013 election. First, we acknowledge and value the contribution of alliance members such as Dr. Hassan Saeed, Mr. Gasim Ibrahim during the second round of voting.  Together they commanded 31.89% of the votes in the first round.  So take away the contribution of these two alliance members, MDP was left with a true value of 21.76% a near approximation of its round one run value of 24.91% of which 3.15%  could be attributed to as Gaumee Itthihaad (GIP) Dr. Mohamed Waheed Hassan Maniku contribution.
 In 2013, the table will be turned around.  MDP has failed to be accepted as a viable government it is seen as a party that has not matured and not maldivianised enough to govern this country. MDP failed to understand that we are protective of our religion and country.  During the known 800 years of written history of Maldives, our forefathers have died and martyred for Islam and these islands we call Dhivehi Raajje.  Here is what an insider of MDP said “We shall stand against all forces from within and without that determines to split our nation in the name of development”. 
People still feel and fear the sense of insecurity that governed us over the years and to a great extent true even today.  The Nasheed Administration changed fear factor methods from corporal punishment and imprisonment to economic seclusion and social onslaught.  It wouldn’t be wrong therefore to say that the vast majority of our population suffers from Stockholm syndrome .
MDP boasts of an increased membership since they came to power.  These signatures were given in return for material benefit and social security guarantees; it is not a guarantee of a vote.  MDP insiders believe that it has only 19000 voters that are willing to vote to keep the party in power.  The rest of the signatures are only on paper. The realization that MDP has taken us several years back in time fifteen years, if not ten, is something for which many people will avenge MDP in 2013. 

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